Thursday, July 17, 2014

What would Machiavelli Do?

The first order of business is some sort of treaty with Russia. That within itself is a deeper issue than can be discussed here. The Ukrainians need to be abandoned in favor of allies who did not support Hitler during WW2. The military balance with Russia has inverted from the Cold War days, and their conventional capability is not strong but their nuclear one is. American nuclear development was initially a response to Russian conventional superiority, now Russia lacks this and retains nuclear weapons as a trump card against the U.S. But we would have to settle accounts. Of all the things we learned post-Cold War with the opening of the archives, this much is clear- there never was a missile gap or a serious threat of the Iron Curtain extending westward. But McCarthy may have been correct in many of assertions regarding communist influence but then its a question of how much respect one pays to freedom of speech.
On the 'Yellow Peril' Version 2: The Chinese do not have a navy to match ours. It appears they are trying to build one, yet America required a half-century cold war of military spending to build its forces. China will not catch up for a long time. It’s a major head-start. In any armed conflict, China lacks a nuclear force of any size to threaten the U.S., and the PLAN/PLA Air Force would not doubt be destroyed without offering much resistance.
All major nations: Europe, Israel, India, Russia are under threat from terrorism so cooperation between them all would go a long way. You fight terrorism effectively in the international arena and with small precise forces.
The United States would then pursue a peaceful settlement of the Syrian Civil War, with Bashar signing away his alliances with Iran and Hizbullah in exchange for the U.S. To cease supporting the anti-government forces in his country and the carrot to offer him would be intelligence cooperation on cutting the jihadists out of his country. US forces could operate in a limited fashion in North Iraq with an eye to keep the Kurds safe while diminishing ISIS.
Ever wondered why Middle East or Afghanistan has exceptionally retarded borders? The Sykes-Picot Agreement. America is attempting to enforce borders drawn by the same red-coated idiots our forefathers fought a long and bloody war to over-throw. History is ironic in the extreme. People arguing for the partition of Iraq seem to think that the current constitution ignored regional autonomy or that a division would magically end the existing tensions. Neither is the case, and either way you slice the pie, you will end up with a very messy desert to the Second Iraq Conflict. Keep this in mind: the Sunnis and Shias are killing each other over a disagreement about who should be Caliph. The Caliph ceased to exist during the break-up of the Ottoman Empire. The ultimate question dividing Sunni/Shia has existed since the 7th Century. The Ethnic divisions in Iraq date to Ottoman-Safavid Wars.
Iran has had much time to prepare for war with the U.S and any military confrontation with them has to have this in mind. Operations from northern Iraq could threaten Tehran. Mutual defense agreements with bordering states are a plus. The Iranian military could easily fall back its own hinterland, but any attempt to cut the straits of Hormuz would require large numbers of men and expose them south of the Zagros Range. Destroying these forces in a potential war would be necessary. The Iranian response would mean terrorism across the region. But with ISIS pushing to Baghdad the Shiites there will be distracted. Kurdistan should be supported, even at the cost of Turkey. Kuzestan is ripe with Sunni tension and there has to be a better use for some of the Gitmo inmates somewhere. Israel could be told to deal with Hezbullah, which it could do, thus rending the Iranian response useless. Iranian terrorism is not a threat and neither are nukes. The biggest worry in regards to Iran developing such weapons would be a nuclear arms race in the region with Saudi Arabia developing nuclear weapons to combat the Iranians, and what you then have is the most religiously extreme Salafist supporting state in the area with nuclear weapons and only a slight grip on power to prevent these weapons from going to the same people that carried out 9/11 itself.
Of course, Machiavelli would probably be confused as to why a country that was recently discovered across the Atlantic was in the middle of Mesopotamia.
Of course, Machiavelli would probably be confused as to why a country that was recently discovered across the Atlantic was in the middle of Mesopotamia.
With leadership like William 'I sure Ain't Jefferson' Clinton, Vice Commander in Chief George 'Constitution Burning Bush' and Dick Cheney, we are sure to bungle every conflict. With people like these running the show, such wars are inevitable, and the blow-back from each of these administrations would be enough to challenge any president, let alone the national joke currently in office.