Tuesday, December 23, 2014

The Indirect Approach to American Foreign Policy

The Indirect Approach to American Foreign Policy

American foreign policy has been dominated by the question of preventing attacks on the Continental United States such as those that occurred on 9-11. I would have to argue that on balance the terrorist acts do not justify the response which has devastated two countries and has no end in sight, despite two declared ends to the Second Iraq War and an occupation of Afghanistan that has gone on longer than the Soviet intervention in the same country. The resolution to the current international tensions present in the world is that the United States should stop supporting covert operations in which the right hand of the federal government does not know what the left hand is doing, and stay out of regions in which is has no actual national interest like the Ukraine. Leaving aside the aforementioned crisis in Ukraine and the sequel to the Cold War which the human race can only hope will get stuck in development hell, the primary conflict the United States is engaged in is called the War on Terrorism. Terrorism, legally speaking is only the threat of violence to accomplish objectives, and there exist criminal statues for dealing with the act, statutes which have been applied to countless everyday people in situations ranging from altercations to domestic disturbances. So the idea is so vast as to include ordinary people decidedly not Islamic, let alone foreign.
Then there is the question of method: BH Liddel Hart, a noted strategist, favors an indirect approach to warfare, and it stands in direct opposition to the hyper-power approach followed by the American government post September 11th. Often cited as the 'good war' by vast swathes of the political spectrum, World War 2 was far less interventionist than any war since. Indeed, during the lead up to the war, Americans did not assist Spain during the Spanish Civil War and American companies helped arm and fuel Franco through various mechanisms. That is, the United States did not intervene in Europe in some attempt to prevent the rise of Fascism like it did post Great War to attempt to strangle Bolshevism in its cradle.
The American response to the destruction of three buildings in the World Trade center complex can best be analogized with an example using hypothetical real people. Suppose a kid, who could be rightly called a punk, puts a brick through a man's window, who could be named 'Sam'. This punk causes some damage harms or kills members of Sam's family and runs. Sam is angry and finds where the punk is staying, and in this case, he is a guest in someone else's home. Sam goes, kills members of the family he is staying with, and lays claim to the damaged home. But the punk escapes. Rather than track him down, Sam attacks a neighboring home because they shared similar interests with the Punk, claiming that he never liked the shady nature of the residents in the second household anyway. This is what America did in launching two invasions, killing hundreds of thousands and rendering millions homeless in a hopeless act of retributive justice which has left the U.S. looking like a unipolar rogue state. The recent contradictions relating to Syria are grand. America armed Syrian rebels to destroy the sole remaining secular Arab regime that had cooperated with it against Sunni terrorists in the past, and now claims a faction of the people it armed are so great a threat that it will again re-enter Iraq and attack targets in Syria after the American population clearly rejected direct intervention against the Damascus government.
The opposition to the idea of not intervening abroad is sure to include the moralistic component that underlies American politics. Americans are as outraged at a beheading as Romans were at the accounts of the Wicker Man ceremony. There is the constant glorification of military service in popular culture, which is a far cry from what most military personnel experience when they learn to 'hurry up and wait'. Self sacrificial ideas are at the heart of Western Culture, which draws its obvious inspiration from Christianity. Terrorism is an asymmetrical response to the American 'hyperpower'. There is a fear of this force, which managed to hijack planes, get past NORAD and accomplish what the major empires in the 20th Century never could: a strike on the American homeland. It was a strike against the financial and government centers. The fear of this, and desire to change the Middle East through military action is understandable. Why not maintain such a military presence as we do when there are such wide-ranging threats? The post World War 2 Red Army was scary, and the existence of the military industrial complex grew out of a desire to dominate the Soviets and prevent a Red Pearl Harbor. There is a certain wisdom in being afraid of people who hold the Salafist interpretation of Islam and who have no obvious fear of death despite obvious American superiority on all levels. Islam is not a simple weak faith. There is a history of conflict between Islam and every other religion it encounters, and a theocratic impulse towards establishing religion. The American Republic even fought wars early on against Barbary pirates.
Fear of Islam in general ignores the disparate interpretations of Islam. It also ignores the modern roots of the Salafist organizations which has root in the very interventionist approach that is supposed to solve it. Fighting this global movement with military force merely leads to the replacement of the destroyed terrorist network with that of another, ad infinitum. 9/11 would have been best prevented by following existing protocol, or perhaps not fermenting religious extremism in Afghanistan, nor of setting up the apparatus for a modern Jihadist movement to kick the Russians out of this country. Surprise attacks are not going to occur as a result of state actors, and if it remains the role of the U.S. Military to combat other nations, and not small non-state groups, it should not be forward deployed in the current manner.
What would a voluntary withdrawal from the world stage look like and how could it be accomplished? Bases in Europe are antiquated. NATO should have been dismantled post Cold War, its expansion is absurd. A treaty with Russia, of whatever form, is the best way to redress any grievances. Putin is not Stalin. Massive commitments in the middle east have destroyed two countries and dismantled one terrorist network, merely to see another rise on its ashes out of American desire to overthrow Bashar Al Asaad. These conflicts are not something America should be involved in. American commitment to Israel began in 1973, so the fact that this relationship is regarded as sacrosanct is odd. Syria and Iran are nations with whom we need to be negotiating. Our commitments in the pacific are likewise nonsensical. North Korea is so starved and poor that if it ever crossed the DMZ its soldiers would spend more time eating than fighting. South Korea is perfectly capable without the American presence of arming and defending itself. China is not some Maoist backwater, but now the second largest economy on earth. Japan was long ago capable of building a navy and air force to defend itself and the idea of such a country being under our 'defense umbrella' is insane. Afghanistan is a choice of occupying a country until the end of time in order to force its various groups to continue pretending to be a nation or to bring the troops home and let that country sort itself out.
Humans are capable of great iniquity to one another in the name of conflicting metaphysical values, and the world can be a scary place, especially when viewed through a media filter that is owned, operated, and held in place by a handful of companies. Sensationalist internet reports, cable news of whatever bent broken by commercials to convince you that you are undersexed, unhealthy, or otherwise flawed certainly causes the person watching such programming to become more insecure about themselves and the environment. But this ignores cold hard actuarial fact that Americans are far more likely to be killed by a black uniformed police officer than a terrorist. It ignores the fact that this exact kind of paranoia led to the world wide atrocity called the Cold War and the subsequent war against the Third World that has never stopped. It ignores the fact that if you act as an empire you will be subject to the deprivations of liberty inherent in imperial action. It ignores the destruction of rights, whether they be natural or simply invented that should form the rational basis for society. It ignores the militarization of the police which has recently led to near revolt in Missouri. It ignores the fact that men who hold ideas can be killed, but the ideas themselves do not die. 'No man, no problem' doesn't kill the meme of the person that you killed. There is no way to democratize the middle east, or the police borders drawn up in centuries long struggles that predated the United States. We cannot kill our way to world peace, nor is this the sole national responsibility of the paramount world power.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Our Choices in the Election


What is the Cheddar at the End of the Rat Race?

'The use of money does not disestablish the normal process of creating credit. Money, it is true, is always being paid into the banks by the retailers and others who receive it in the course of business, and they of course receive bank credits in return for the money thus deposited. But for the manufacturers and others who have to pay money out, credits are still created by the exchange of obligations, the banker's immediate obligation being given to his customer in exchange for the customer's obligation to repay at a future date. We shall still describe this dual operation as the creation of credit. By its means the banker creates the means of payment out of nothing, whereas when he receives a bag of money from his customer, one means of payment, a bank credit, is merely substituted for another, an equal amount of cash.'

 Economist Ralph George Hawtrey, Currency and Credit (1919)

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Christmas

Whenever you talk about putting the Christ back in Christmas, I can't help but think I would rather put Saturn back in Saturnalia.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

What would Machiavelli Do?

The first order of business is some sort of treaty with Russia. That within itself is a deeper issue than can be discussed here. The Ukrainians need to be abandoned in favor of allies who did not support Hitler during WW2. The military balance with Russia has inverted from the Cold War days, and their conventional capability is not strong but their nuclear one is. American nuclear development was initially a response to Russian conventional superiority, now Russia lacks this and retains nuclear weapons as a trump card against the U.S. But we would have to settle accounts. Of all the things we learned post-Cold War with the opening of the archives, this much is clear- there never was a missile gap or a serious threat of the Iron Curtain extending westward. But McCarthy may have been correct in many of assertions regarding communist influence but then its a question of how much respect one pays to freedom of speech.
On the 'Yellow Peril' Version 2: The Chinese do not have a navy to match ours. It appears they are trying to build one, yet America required a half-century cold war of military spending to build its forces. China will not catch up for a long time. It’s a major head-start. In any armed conflict, China lacks a nuclear force of any size to threaten the U.S., and the PLAN/PLA Air Force would not doubt be destroyed without offering much resistance.
All major nations: Europe, Israel, India, Russia are under threat from terrorism so cooperation between them all would go a long way. You fight terrorism effectively in the international arena and with small precise forces.
The United States would then pursue a peaceful settlement of the Syrian Civil War, with Bashar signing away his alliances with Iran and Hizbullah in exchange for the U.S. To cease supporting the anti-government forces in his country and the carrot to offer him would be intelligence cooperation on cutting the jihadists out of his country. US forces could operate in a limited fashion in North Iraq with an eye to keep the Kurds safe while diminishing ISIS.
Ever wondered why Middle East or Afghanistan has exceptionally retarded borders? The Sykes-Picot Agreement. America is attempting to enforce borders drawn by the same red-coated idiots our forefathers fought a long and bloody war to over-throw. History is ironic in the extreme. People arguing for the partition of Iraq seem to think that the current constitution ignored regional autonomy or that a division would magically end the existing tensions. Neither is the case, and either way you slice the pie, you will end up with a very messy desert to the Second Iraq Conflict. Keep this in mind: the Sunnis and Shias are killing each other over a disagreement about who should be Caliph. The Caliph ceased to exist during the break-up of the Ottoman Empire. The ultimate question dividing Sunni/Shia has existed since the 7th Century. The Ethnic divisions in Iraq date to Ottoman-Safavid Wars.
Iran has had much time to prepare for war with the U.S and any military confrontation with them has to have this in mind. Operations from northern Iraq could threaten Tehran. Mutual defense agreements with bordering states are a plus. The Iranian military could easily fall back its own hinterland, but any attempt to cut the straits of Hormuz would require large numbers of men and expose them south of the Zagros Range. Destroying these forces in a potential war would be necessary. The Iranian response would mean terrorism across the region. But with ISIS pushing to Baghdad the Shiites there will be distracted. Kurdistan should be supported, even at the cost of Turkey. Kuzestan is ripe with Sunni tension and there has to be a better use for some of the Gitmo inmates somewhere. Israel could be told to deal with Hezbullah, which it could do, thus rending the Iranian response useless. Iranian terrorism is not a threat and neither are nukes. The biggest worry in regards to Iran developing such weapons would be a nuclear arms race in the region with Saudi Arabia developing nuclear weapons to combat the Iranians, and what you then have is the most religiously extreme Salafist supporting state in the area with nuclear weapons and only a slight grip on power to prevent these weapons from going to the same people that carried out 9/11 itself.
Of course, Machiavelli would probably be confused as to why a country that was recently discovered across the Atlantic was in the middle of Mesopotamia.
Of course, Machiavelli would probably be confused as to why a country that was recently discovered across the Atlantic was in the middle of Mesopotamia.
With leadership like William 'I sure Ain't Jefferson' Clinton, Vice Commander in Chief George 'Constitution Burning Bush' and Dick Cheney, we are sure to bungle every conflict. With people like these running the show, such wars are inevitable, and the blow-back from each of these administrations would be enough to challenge any president, let alone the national joke currently in office.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Relationship 101

Common Decency Is No Longer Common

-Don't bear dead weight. That is the job of casket bearers. If its dead, Let it be. Every demon inhabits their own hell.
-If someone treats you as a mistake, let reality do the heavy lifting when you know you are in the right. Only a sociopath feels no remorse or regret.
-Hate is the easy road, and carrying grudges indicative of a weaker nature unfit for survival.
-Passive abuse is still abuse. People who excuse their own actions via situations really believe in a sort of ethics that is not worthy of the term. Anyone playing the victim card is a few aces short of a full deck. Pity is a dangerous emotion in either direction
-Sometimes forgiving is the only route for a mature person. If you can't do this, good luck in life because life itself can be far harsher than anything one person can do to you
-Heuristics are useful. If someone does not fit what you know to be a rationally and healthy reaction, hit the road and refer them to a professional.
-Sharing your body with someone and then never speaking to them is generally a sick setup. Death is final. Cutting people off right and left is a great way to lock yourself in the very negative states of mind that produce personal and interpersonal problems. Self-fulfilling prophecy is a sad truth. If you talk to no one you have dated, this usually means there are two sides to the coin and perhaps you are part of the problem.
-If you throw someone away, do not be surprised when they move on. Only children at the pre-operational stage are incapable of realizing actions do not have consequences. If someone gives you their best and you give them your worst, don be surprised when they figure out they might deserve something better.
-Take care when you have someone's heart. If you lack the ability to pick up on emotional ques from someone you are sleeping with, take steps to increase emotional intellect.
-Don't mess with someone's ego or money. People are not means to an end, and if you treat someone like something that has expended its value, you will likely get a bad reaction.
- A fight is a nice dance in which two angry people prove just how bad that state of mind is
-Get an animal before you expect unconditional love
-Apologies, when issued, should be given a chance. There is no interaction between two people that will not include hurdles.
-If someone is hurt when a break up happens, it means they cared. For all you know, you were a peak experience. Be careful who you seek advice from in these situations because it could be that those you rely upon were never able to form the attachment you are severing. Do not treat an uncommonly good partner like something common.
-Time will put everything in perspective. It may take a lot of time, but if you are a functioning person with a conscience you will not forget the wrongs you have done another person. Honor promotes good sleep. Only death is final and if you seek this kind of end with someone who loves you, you will likely end up dying alone or relying on your own children to care for you when they themselves should be living which you never learned to do.
-Pulling away from another person in stress means that you are only capable of being a good person during fair weather times. People are supposed to grow together, and anyone using variations of the 'its not you, its me' approach are still stuck in the teenage years mentally. Don't be surprised when you end up with more of the same when you demolish that which was different.
-If you have been single for a long time, take care to re-develop those skills with the person you are with. Real love is a learned thing especially in regards to romance, and what one sees as a child from one's parents will set the course for what one thinks is healthy.
-feelings change. All things have impermanence. But don't expect anything genuine to go away on a whim. Common dating advice is only fit for common people.
-If genuine emotion scares someone away, or you think it might, that should scare you away from them. Fantasy and reality are very different in this regard. If you seek an endless platonic ideal in a partner you will miss out on many genuine people along the way.
-Love is different in each interaction. Do not waste time on romantic notions of the past.
-Break ups are isolating times, but only a malicious person does so in a manner which is disrespectful and takes none of the other person's needs into account.